Monday, May 30, 2005

French "No" leaves Constitution's future murky


It's offical.  The French say "Non" to the Constitution.  While this leaves the Constitution gasping for air, the Dutch will have to decide on Wednesday whether or not to put a stake through its heart.

Friday, May 27, 2005

Gridlock in Czech Republic over EU Constitution


Hidden behind the looming referenda in France and the Netherlands over the Constitution is a small political crisis in the Czech Republic.  The Czech government cannot make up their mind on how to ratify the new treaty because the government and the opposition disagree about whether a one-off referendum should be held just to approve the Constitution or if referenda should be introduced as permanent legal instrument.  The euroskeptic opposition also wants to have the referendum soon, while the government wants to tie it to the general election expected next year.  Since the Constitution is expected to be approved by Czech voters, the opposition is clearly trying to take Europe out of domestic politics before the election.  It is another unfortunate example of the tendency of political parties in Europe to minimize the debate over Europe and its effects on domestic political competition.

Wednesday, May 25, 2005

Schröder to seek early elections


German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has taken the very unusual step of calling for early elections after losing the regional election in North Rhine-Westphalia.  Unlike many other parliamentary democracies where the timing of elections is at the discretion of the PM, Germany's constitution first requires the chancellor to lose a vote of confidence in the Bundestag.  The German President then must decide whether or not to call for early elections.  If he does not call for early elections, the current Chancellor remains in place until an alternative candidate receives a majority of votes from MPs.  This complexity is why it is almost unprecedented for Chancellors to pursue early elections.  Uncertainty over the election outcome, which at present lean towards the opposition CDU, will cast a shadow over the current EU budget debate and the beginning of accession talks with Turkey.

Friday, May 20, 2005

If Constitution rejected, what next?


As the odds of a double whammy rejection increase, what would be next for the Constitution after a no vote?  Declaration 30 on the ratification of the Constitution says:
"The Conference notes that if, two years after the signature of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe, four fifths of the Member States have ratified it and one or more Member States have encountered difficulties in proceeding with ratification, the matter will be referred to the European Council."
On its face, this suggests that the Constitution is not technically dead until at least six states reject it.  There is an implicit assumption that all 25 member states will make a decision on the Constitution before  the European Council will meet to figure out "Plan B."  However, that isn't realistic.  Two strikes may be all the Constitution needs to end the process prematurely.  So what is likely to happen?
There is the opt-out/side payment route, as was done with after the Danish rejection of the Maastricht Treaty.  The member states who have not yet ratified the Constitution could be asked to continue  the process while France and the Netherlands could be offered some sort of concession to gain popular support for the treaty.  Unfortunately, this is not easy to accomplish without reopening the debate over the Constitution, something that would essentially mean starting over.  Plus, the primary reason for the likely rejection of Constitution is that the public is skeptical of the old way of doing things and it will not be bought off so easily as in the past.
The more likely route is that the process will be stopped in its tracks for a moment of reflection.  There could be some sort of informal agreement about implementing certain reforms, but the larger and most urgently needed reforms like QMV voting in the Council and full-time president of the  Council require the backing of a new treaty.  This means the best hope for the process is that the a future presidency rallies the member states and pushes forward with the process.  Luxembourg does not have enought time left in its presidency to do much, and the United Kingdom, who takes over in June, lacks the enthusaism needed to do the job successfully.  Austria and Finland are up next in 2006, but I am also skeptical of their chances.  It may take Germany in 2007 to provide the push for change, but that could hinge on who is in charge there when the time comes.
Of course, if six states did decide to reject the Constitution it becomes a dead letter anyway.

Friday, May 13, 2005

"Protected Designation of Origin" necessary


One of the more misunderstood European Laws is the one designed to protect regional foods.  A case before the ECJ about about feta cheese is a classic example of the hostility that often surrounds the granting of "Protected Designation of Origin" (PDO) status.  In 2002, the Commission granted Greece the exclusive right to label its cheese feta.  Denmark and Germany challenged the ruling in the ECJ and lost.  However, demonstrating how POD status can have an impact everywhere, the lone producer of feta cheese in the UK complains the ruling will be devasting to their company.  While it may seem silly to outlaw cheesemakers in Yorkshire from using the name feta, POD status exists because of the need to protect culturally significant foodstuffs in an era of globalization.  It is one of the few protective practices allowed in the common market, but seems like a necessary one.  Europe must protect its diversity while forging unity.

Monday, May 9, 2005

Happy Europe Day


On the anniversary  of the founding of the ECSC, it is important to remember the relationship between European peace and European Union:
On May 8 2005, Europe celebrated 60 years since the cessation of war in Europe. On 9 May it celebrates 55 years of the economic union designed to maintain that peace.
On 9 May 1950, Robert Schuman, then French Minister of Foreign Affairs, proposed, in what is now known as the Schuman Declaration, the idea of a European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC). He spoke to a Europe reeling from war and his aim was to fuse the economic foundations of the major European states to the point where war became "not merely unthinkable, but materially impossible".
Good work, Everyone!

Monday, May 2, 2005

Europe looks Green in Eurobarometer


The latest Eurobarometer survey shows that EU citizens believe environmental protection should take precedence over economic competitiveness. It also shows that while green NGOS remain the most trusted groups on environmental issues, their popularity dropped since 2002. Perhaps most striking of all the survey's findings is that only 2% of the public trusts corporations on environmental issues. This suggests that the declining support for Green parties in several member states has not diminished public support for green issues.