China's aircraft-killing missile is a matter of perspective

For realists, international relations is defined by the constant struggle for power between international actors. For them, the news that China may be near to perfecting an aircraft-carrier-killing missile might be troublesome. According to the AP:

Nothing projects U.S. global air and sea power more vividly than supercarriers. Bristling with fighter jets that can reach deep into even landlocked trouble zones, America's virtually invincible carrier fleet has long enforced its dominance of the high seas.

China may soon put an end to that.

U.S. naval planners are scrambling to deal with what analysts say is a game-changing weapon being developed by China — an unprecedented carrier-killing missile called the Dong Feng 21D that could be launched from land with enough accuracy to penetrate the defenses of even the most advanced moving aircraft carrier at a distance of more than 1,500 kilometers (900 miles).

Analysts say final testing of the missile could come as soon as the end of this year, though questions remain about how fast China will be able to perfect its accuracy to the level needed to threaten a moving carrier at sea.

If China were to develop a missile capable of sinking a U.S. aircraft carrier at sea, it would dramatically alter the balance of power in the world. For balance-of-power realists, this development would signal the need for a possible realignment of U.S. alliances in Asia. For power transition realists, this is a tipping point that makes conflict between the U.S. and China much more likely. Yet, even if we assume the worst case scenario and China perfects this technology by the end of the year, I wonder if it really means anything.

Liberals will point out China is so dependent on the U.S. economically that it would have no real reason to ever use this capability. China can sink our carriers now, theoretically, with its nuclear arsenal, but no one seems to worried about it. Constructivists, on the other hand, might point to the relative obscurity of this article as evidence that while bastions of realism, like the military, are concerned about a rising China, the U.S. and China enjoy a relationship that is based on rivalry, not aggression. As long as that identity holds, conflict remains unlikely. It also means that the mere threat of a change in the relative balance-of-power might not be something to get so worked up about.