I have long thought that the future of Europe would be decided on Sept 27. However, it has becoming increasingly probable that Europe will face its day of reckoning a few months earlier when the French go to the polls May 29. Media coverage of French President Jacque Chirrac's attempts to revitalize the "yes" camp in the upcoming referendum on the Constitution for Europe has not been kind.
With the "no" campaign leading in polls with up to 55% of the vote, defeat is not yet inevitable. Nevertheless, political elites have begun their usual tactic of trying to shame the "wayward electorate" back in line. Take for example this comment by Roman Prodi, former president of the Commission: "We will go through a great period of crisis. The problem will not only be a catastrophe for France, but the fall of Europe." Given that voters are increasing distrustful of the motives of European political elites, this strategy is likely counterproductive. Voters will not simply vote yes for Europe since it is expected of them.
Elites are justifiably fearful of a French no. Just three days after the French go to the polls, the Dutch will have their say. Current polls suggest the Dutch will also reject the treaty. A French no vote will likely scuttle any hope for a yes victory in the Netherlands. However, it is not all doom and gloom on the continent. Bulgaria and Romania have signed European Union accession treaties, paving the way for them to join the EU in January 2007. Hopefully, they'll be joining a Europe with a Constitution.
With the "no" campaign leading in polls with up to 55% of the vote, defeat is not yet inevitable. Nevertheless, political elites have begun their usual tactic of trying to shame the "wayward electorate" back in line. Take for example this comment by Roman Prodi, former president of the Commission: "We will go through a great period of crisis. The problem will not only be a catastrophe for France, but the fall of Europe." Given that voters are increasing distrustful of the motives of European political elites, this strategy is likely counterproductive. Voters will not simply vote yes for Europe since it is expected of them.
Elites are justifiably fearful of a French no. Just three days after the French go to the polls, the Dutch will have their say. Current polls suggest the Dutch will also reject the treaty. A French no vote will likely scuttle any hope for a yes victory in the Netherlands. However, it is not all doom and gloom on the continent. Bulgaria and Romania have signed European Union accession treaties, paving the way for them to join the EU in January 2007. Hopefully, they'll be joining a Europe with a Constitution.
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