Still not getting it

Arguably, the biggest problem facing the Constitution for Europe is the lack of communication between political elites and the public. But despite the Constitution's sagging poll numbers in France, European elites seem incapable of grasping this simple truth. Take as an example EU justice commissioner Franco Frattini, who told Le Figero yesterday that a French rejection of the treaty next month would mean that the European debate would have to be re-opened. He is right, but his version of a new debate was about widening it to include national parliaments. He never mentions the public, who are the ones who really need to be asked what kind of Europe they want. Frattini's comments were condemned by Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, currently president of the EU, who said Frattini spoke for the Commission, not the member states. Juncker says that any additional debate about the future of Europe will be held in the Council, the most secretive EU institution, not the national parliaments — or with the public.

This failure to consider the desires of the public is nothing new. The Commission itself announced last week that over the years it has "underestimated" the importance of connecting with citizens. After the "shocking" rejection of earlier treaties at the hands of voters and the continuing decline of public trust in national and European political institutions, it seems irrational for elites to continue their decades long indifference to the the masses. Yet, they do. If the Constitution fails in France next month, I have very little faith that European elites will learn anything from the experience. The tragic thing is that really is no need to reopen the debate over Europe, just a need to get the public engaged in the one that is still going on.

Eu tu Jacques

I am becoming increasingly pessimistic about the chances for the Constitution. I just find it so hard to believe that European elites are so out of touch with reality when it comes to integration, but the evidence is all around:

"France would find itself on the edge of the platform as the train went past," [French President Jacques Chirac] said. "If we vote 'no,' we will be responsible for interrupting 50 years of European construction."

April Showers bring May Doom and Gloom?

I have long thought that the future of Europe would be decided on Sept 27.  However, it has becoming increasingly probable that Europe will face its day of reckoning a few months earlier when the French go to the polls May 29. Media coverage of French President Jacque Chirrac's attempts to revitalize the "yes" camp in the upcoming referendum on the Constitution for Europe has not been kind. 
With the "no" campaign leading in polls with up to 55% of the vote, defeat is not yet inevitable.  Nevertheless, political elites have begun their usual tactic of trying to shame the "wayward electorate" back in line.  Take for example this comment by Roman Prodi, former president of the Commission: "We will go through a great period of crisis. The problem will not only be a catastrophe for France, but the fall of Europe."  Given that voters are increasing distrustful of the motives of European political elites, this strategy is likely counterproductive.  Voters will not simply vote yes for Europe since it is expected of them. 
Elites are justifiably fearful of a French no.  Just three days after the French go to the polls, the Dutch will have their say. Current polls suggest the Dutch will also reject the treaty.  A French no vote will likely scuttle any hope for a yes victory in the Netherlands.  However, it is not all doom and gloom on the continent.  Bulgaria and Romania have signed European Union accession treaties, paving the way for them to join the EU in January 2007.  Hopefully, they'll be joining a Europe with a Constitution.

Political scientists to advise the Commission

The Commission has created an external advisory group called the "Group of political analysis" to provide it with expert advice on EU policies. The group includes political scientists and other researchers and is charged with giving commissioners impartial advice on EU policies and with generating a dialogue between the Commission and other experts from academia, business and civil society. As a political scientist, I am not so sure we really have anything useful to tell them.

Parliament approves Bulgaria and Romania for membership

With the European Parliament's vote to allow Bulgaria and Romania to join the EU in 2007, the last institutional hurdle to their memberships has been cleared.  While their membership is contingent on their meeting certain requirements for reform, their accession treaties will be signed later this month.  The Parliament did not clear the two countries without resistance.  MEPs were especially concerned about funding for the two nations, who will be the poorest memebers of the EU, and continuing problems with corruption and organized crime.  Still, the vote is an optimstic sign of Europe's confidence in its future.

Spanish vote on Constitution about EU, not Constitution

Reading Eurobarometer summaries are a great way to keep your pulse on European affairs, especially as the make-or-break refereda on the Constitution in France and the Netherlands  approuches.  The successful Spanish referendum in Februrary was the subject of a recent Flash Eurobarometer  and the summary of its findings has some interesting things to say about public support for the Constitution.

The survey examined the low turnout in the referendum and found that young people were the least likly to turnout and also the most likly to vote "no."  The survey also found that 30% of those not voting abstained because of a lack of information and 10% blamed the lack of public debate over the merits of the Constitution.  Suprisinly, while lack of information was the number one reason for abstention, nearly the same number (28%) claim that they just couldn't get to the polls.
The survey also examined the decision making process of voters.  It found  that 10% of voters made up their minds the day of the referendum, while 35% had made up their mind before the referendum was even announced.  Surprisingly, 34% of respondents said their vote was based upon their overall opinion of the EU rather. This compared to just 26% who said their vote reflected their opinion of the Constitutin itself.
Link:  Eurobarometer: European Constitution - Post-Referendum survey in Spain

No one talking about EU as Blair sets election date

Tony Blair has officially set May 5 as the date for the next general election in the UK.  Unlike in past years, the EU is taking a back seat in this election because no one wants to talk about it.  Labour's promise to hold future referenda on the euro and the Constitution and the upcoming French vote on the Constitution have removed Europe from the short-term agenda.  Instead, health, education, and the Iraq war are the big issues in voters'minds.  The Conservatives are unwilling to try to change this by putting Europe into bigger play having lost badly in 2001 on a heavily euro centered platfrom that went no where after Blair promised a referendum.  The Liberal Democrats, the most pro-European party, are focused on their position as the only party to oppose the unpopular war in Iraq and have no reason to talk about Europe either.